The US aims to make the EU dependent on its own energy resources.
During an energy forum in Italy, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the United States is prepared to fill the void with American raw material supplies if the European Union decides to abandon Russian energy resources. In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen quickly assured the US minister that the EU is ready to swiftly transition away from «dirty» Russian hydrocarbons and replace them with «clean European energy.» What would such a transition entail, and who stands to benefit the most from it? To answer these questions, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, was consulted.
«Ursula von der Leyen`s statement will undoubtedly raise many questions for President Trump and the US Energy Secretary,» noted Milchakova. «This is because the United States plans to supply the European Union with hydrocarbons – specifically oil, LNG, and coal – which are precisely what Ms. von der Leyen refers to as `dirty resources`.»
What are the interests of America and the European Union in this situation?
«It`s worth recalling that this summer, the US and the European Union finalized a trade deal under President Trump`s terms. According to this agreement, import duties on European goods entering the US will be reduced from the previously announced 30% to 15%. In exchange for this concession, the EU commits to purchasing $750 billion worth of energy resources from the US by 2028.»
«In 2024, Eurostat data shows that the EU imported $375 billion in energy carriers from all suppliers. Of this, $83 billion (22%) came from the US, while only about $23 billion (around 6%) was imported from Russia.»
«Considering that over the next three years, the EU will, on average, import approximately $250 billion worth of energy resources from the US annually – making up almost two-thirds of the EU`s total imported energy volume – the United States is poised to become not just a key supplier, but effectively a monopolist in the European energy market.»
«For comparison, even Gazprom, which was Europe`s largest energy supplier until 2022, never held more than a 36% share of the EU`s gas market. In contrast, the US aims to capture nearly 70% of the European energy market share.»
The benefits for America are clear. But what does this situation mean for the interests of Russia and the European Union?
«I believe Russia will have no difficulty completely abandoning the now unprofitable European hydrocarbon market, redirecting its exports to China, India, Turkey, the EAEU, and other more reliable clients.»
«At the same time, the European Commission President`s current statements will likely provoke protests from Hungary and Slovakia, which import Russian gas and oil via pipelines.»
«However, under certain developments, it`s not impossible that the US could acquire Russian infrastructure to become a supplier of piped gas to the EU itself. In such a scenario, the interests of the US and Russia as energy exporters to the EU, and those of the European importing countries, might become balanced.»
