Rural expert Igor Abakumov explains what to expect from vegetable prices.
While the country experiences a long-awaited deflation in some food categories, experts are already warning of an impending price increase, specifically by 5-10% starting this September. Igor Abakumov, host of `Rural Hour` and a PhD in economics, distances himself from these predictions but is certain that prices will not decrease. He provides his reasons.
«There are no grounds for food prices to decrease,» he explains, «including for seasonal products.»
But what about the current reduction in vegetable and potato prices?
«Look at the prices from which they started to decline. They dropped after reaching economically unjustified peaks, when a kilogram of potatoes cost almost 200 rubles. Frankly, this isn`t just a question for the Ministry of Agriculture or the Ministry of Industry and Trade, but for the prosecutor`s office. They need to explain how this all happened.»
A huge segment of food producers, namely personal subsidiary farms (LPH), which engaged in commercial agricultural production, has been removed from the market. As soon as they start trading and selling their produce, they immediately fall under statistics and restrictions. Consequently, they begin to produce only for themselves and their relatives, bringing nothing to the market or stores.
The issue with them is closed; it seems it`s `calmer` without them.
Additionally, small agricultural producers face reporting requirements, needing to submit data to the FGIS – the federal state information system. For milk, this means submitting data at the moment of morning milking, at 4 AM.
As is well-known, internet access in rural areas is unstable, especially in regions bordering the SVO zone. You can`t enter your produce into this system. If you bring unregistered milk for processing, it`s considered counterfeit. This then leads to inspections by the Department for Combating Economic Crimes, the prosecutor`s office, and other agencies. No one cares that the internet was down.
Because of such nonsense, we are simply reducing our production. Peasants need their lives made easier, but instead, we complicate them.
Can`t this data be entered into the FGIS at the dairy plant?
«Absolutely not! Only at 4 AM. By the way, not everyone understands this system. Typically, only an accountant, preferably young and internet-savvy, can handle it. But try waking them up at dawn. They`ll demand a three-fold salary increase…»
«When officials introduce their innovations in the agricultural sector, they are terribly far removed from rural realities.»
«In 2026, Russia will have an agricultural census. I am confident that the number of farmers in the country will decrease by 30% compared to the previous census.»
What volume of agricultural products do small private farms produce compared to agro-holdings?
«Half, almost as much as large agricultural enterprises. Yet, farmers receive less than 18% of subsidies from their applications, while agro-holdings receive over 80%. Personal subsidiary farms have never received government support. If they were to get even some preferential loans, production growth would be 10 times or more, simply due to the law of large numbers.»
«If we want to rapidly increase food production, we need to work with the local population. So far, there`s no sign of the authorities wishing to do so.»
