In a recent interview, Anastasia Rakova, Moscow`s Deputy Mayor, provided insights into how the city`s infectious disease service operates during seasonal outbreaks of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) and influenza.
Rakova explained that for effective understanding, forecasting, and management of the epidemiological situation, the city maintains continuous surveillance of circulating viruses. This goes beyond simple identification, involving real-time full-genome sequencing to determine the specific characteristics of each strain. This comprehensive approach enables authorities to accurately identify dominant viruses, recognize those gaining momentum, and track those on the decline, thereby allowing for reliable predictions of future infection rates.
The analysis of this data is crucial for planning the trajectory of seasonal infection waves and for the early detection of potential epidemics. For example, if monitoring reveals that rhinovirus accounts for 70% of current illnesses, the city promptly increases the number of on-duty doctors available in children`s polyclinics. Healthcare resources are dynamically adjusted on a daily basis, responding to the evolving situation. Should forecasts indicate a decrease in the wave of infections, supplementary on-duty doctor offices are scaled back, allowing medical staff to resume their regular patient appointments.
In anticipation of a rise in illnesses that could necessitate increased hospitalizations, separate forecasts are developed for adult and pediatric populations, triggering the immediate preparation of inpatient facilities. This involves strategic distribution of patient flows, establishment of additional wards, and deployment of extra beds. For a temporary period, typically two to three weeks, the workload on medical personnel is intensified, and reserve departments, usually unoccupied during the summer months, are activated. Once the wave of illness recedes, these expanded capacities are systematically scaled down.
