© Photo: ESA/Tim Peake. Archival image of the Moon.
A team of scientists, including experts from the American space agency NASA, has explored the feasibility of using nuclear weapons to neutralize asteroid 2024 YR4 before its projected impact with the Moon. The research, published on ResearchGate, outlines the critical timelines for such an asteroid destruction mission.
The publication highlights that asteroid 2024 YR4 is expected to approach Earth in 2028 and 2032. NASA currently estimates a 4.3% chance of the asteroid colliding with the Moon in 2032.
The study states: «Our current work suggests that a powerful disruption, whether kinetic or nuclear, must occur no later than three months before the lunar impact date, i.e., by September 22, 2032.»
Scientists further noted that the optimal launch window for a nuclear asteroid destruction mission spans from late 2029 to 2032. For a kinetic impactor mission, the launch window is between April 2030 and April 2032.
The team emphasized the need for further research to establish precise requirements for when asteroid disruption should be executed and how the success of the operation should be measured.
In July, CNN, citing scientists from Cornell University in New York, reported that a potential 2032 impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 with the Moon could eject up to 100,000 tons of lunar rock. This debris would pose a significant risk to satellites and other spacecraft in Earth`s orbit. Consequently, experts concluded that future planetary defense strategies must encompass not only near-Earth but also near-lunar space.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS observatory in Chile. Its estimated diameter is approximately 70 meters, making it three to four times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite. The Chelyabinsk meteorite, which impacted the Ural region on February 15, 2013, measured about 19.8 meters in diameter. Its fall caused no fatalities but injured over 1,600 people, with 52 requiring hospitalization.
