Red Caviar Prices Could Double by New Year: Experts Reveal the Reasons

World news » Red Caviar Prices Could Double by New Year: Experts Reveal the Reasons
Preview Red Caviar Prices Could Double by New Year: Experts Reveal the Reasons

Fisheries Association expert Alexander Fomin notes that global warming and river water levels influence the delicacy`s cost.

Over the past year, the price of red caviar in Russia has increased by 41%, rising from 5,800 to 9,300 rubles per kilogram. Although the New Year holidays, when demand for this delicacy traditionally peaks, are still four months away, current prices are already a hot topic on social media. A visit to specialized stores confirms that the product`s cost is indeed striking.

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Photo: Alexey Merinov

Few shoppers curiously examine the price tags on the counter. There`s plenty to be surprised about. The cheapest sockeye salmon caviar costs 1246 rubles for a 140-gram jar. Chum salmon caviar is even more expensive at 1400 rubles, while pink salmon caviar, which dominates the market, is 1456 rubles.

«Why is it so expensive?» a female customer exclaims, «It`s not even New Year yet, and the prices are astronomical!»

«I don`t make it,» the sleepy saleswoman replied indifferently. «If you don`t want it, don`t buy it.»

Meanwhile, the question of pricing is indeed significant. Although experts noted a decline in retail prices for red caviar in August, when, according to them, pink salmon caviar — accounting for 73% of the total salmon catch in the Far East — supposedly became cheaper. In August, its price fell by 2% compared to July. However, current retail prices indicate that it has risen again in September.

Generally, we are accustomed to seeing price increases for this delicacy before New Year, when Russians traditionally adorn their festive tables with at least one jar – as many cannot afford two.

In December 2024, all buyers were shocked by the prices of red caviar. It should be noted that today they have practically not changed – despite the lack of high summer demand.

Record red caviar prices at the end of last year were attributed by experts to 2024 being a «poor harvest» year for salmon. Indeed, the catch in 2024 was 3.5 times lower than in 2023. For prices to decrease, the catch in the current year, 2025, would need to be 3.5 times higher.

And the chances for such a result, according to specialists, were quite real. This is because, evolutionarily, salmon populations in odd years (2025) are significantly larger than in even years. Statistics confirm this: in 2024, the fishing season yield was 235 thousand tons, while in 2023, it was 608 thousand tons.

However, in the current odd year, something seems to have gone awry – at least, if one is to believe the price tags in stores.

Alexander Fomin, Executive Director of the Fisheries Association, does not know the reason behind the 41% increase in red caviar prices. He states that current retail prices are holding at the level of late 2024.

Question: The fishing season will end by late September. Currently, sales include this year`s catch and remnants from previous years. However, there won`t be a significant increase in red caviar in 2025; the catch is only about 30% higher than last year`s result.
Answer: Even 10 years ago, ichthyologists predicted a decline in salmon populations. There are many reasons for this, including global climate warming. Today, fishing companies are shifting further north. There is virtually no salmon left on Sakhalin and in Primorsky Krai; only Kamchatka is helping us out.
Question: And what does global warming have to do with it?
Answer: Climate change has an adverse effect. Salmon is a cold-water fish. It lives in the ocean and spawns in rivers. These bodies of water have warmed significantly in recent years, making it uncomfortable for salmon. Moreover, warm-water «competitors» consume part of their food base. Hence, the decline in catch volumes.
Question: So, no price reduction for red caviar is foreseen?
Answer: Its main volumes are currently in the fishing areas, in the Far East. A mass delivery to the capital region is expected in late September. Typically, a new, lowest price for red caviar is formed during this period. However, a significant price reduction is not expected now. The situation is better than last year, but only slightly.
Question: And what about the New Year`s rush and another price increase for the delicacy?
Answer: Red caviar is a special product. If divided by the country`s population, everyone consumes less than 100 grams on average. And for some reason, we absolutely must buy it for the festive table. This causes a sharp increase in demand. The world understands that salmon, due to objective reasons, is becoming scarcer and that fishing should be paused to allow its populations to grow. Our fellow citizens have a different mentality – no holiday is complete without red caviar.

Author: Vladimir Chuprin

Russia
Kamchatka
Sakhalin