Financial experts assess August`s potential impact on the currency market this year.
By the evening of July 28, the dollar exchange rate on the international Forex market reached 83.1 rubles, marking the lowest point for the Russian currency in two months. Previously, the ruble had shown steady appreciation, gaining 22% against the dollar since the beginning of the year. Despite this, most experts had predicted a weakening of the national currency by summer. The question now arises: is the current dollar surge a trend reversal, and will the «August magic,» traditionally considered an unfavorable period for the ruble, manifest this year? This report sought insights from experts.
The ruble on Forex has retreated to its two-month-old positions. On the evening of July 28, the dollar was traded at 83.1 rubles, though the official rate set by the Central Bank of Russia changed only slightly, settling at 79.58 rubles. It`s worth noting that in December 2024, the dollar was 100 rubles, but by the end of the first quarter of 2025, its price dropped to 83 rubles and continued to decline, reaching 78.2 rubles by late June.
The expert community remained skeptical of this strengthening, expecting the national currency to begin losing ground before summer`s end. This view was supported by historical data, poetically dubbed the «black magic of August» for the ruble. Indeed, from 1998 to 2024, the dollar strengthened against the ruble in 20 out of 26 Augusts. Even during the relatively calm years of 2020 and 2021, the last summer month saw currency fluctuations within 3-5%.
In 2025, there are significantly more reasons for negative developments, with geopolitical tensions being the primary one. «The ruble`s weakening, which analysts had long warned about and many large exporters suffering losses had only dreamed of, has finally happened,» says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. «Help for a weaker ruble came from abroad. On July 28, the ruble sharply depreciated after US President Donald Trump`s rhetoric towards Russia turned unfriendly. While this was somewhat expected, as was the ruble`s weakening – given that no fundamental improvements in Russia-US relations occurred.» The American leader`s statement that he decided to shorten the 50-day ultimatum for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine to 10-12 days means the deadline could effectively expire next week. Such rhetoric increases geopolitical risks, including the threat of new anti-Russian sanctions. «These could affect our oil supplies, further reducing the already limited influx of foreign currency from exports,» believes Dmitry Babin, a stock market expert at BCS World of Investments. Additionally, the peak of exporters` tax payments occurred just before this, for which companies typically sell foreign currency, temporarily increasing its supply. While this alone is insufficient to destabilize the currency, the overall negative market sentiment clearly intensified.
Other factors also do not favor the ruble`s strengthening. «The Bank of Russia, at its last monetary policy meeting, signaled the possibility of continued easing, which unsettled the currency market from its prolonged equilibrium since May,» states Spartak Sobolev, head of investment strategy research at Alfa-Forex. According to him, by the end of the week, the dollar could reach 83-84 rubles, the euro 95-96.5 rubles, and the yuan 11.7-11.85 rubles. Should US sanction risks materialize, the national currency`s position could weaken further. «In principle, one can expect that if no progress is made before Trump`s 10-12-day ultimatum expires, the `August magic` might stimulate further ruble devaluation,» asserts Dmitry Alexandrov, head of analytical research at AVI Capital.
However, even more pessimistic forecasts exist. «The ruble didn`t `weaken`; it was simply released into free float,» argues Alexey Mokrov, head of Cryptobotpro LLC. «The budget can no longer sustain the illusion of stability. The Ministry of Finance sold $210 million and 1.5 tons of gold in three days—this is like selling furniture from a sinking ship. Decreased exports, dividend outflows, and reduced oil and gas revenues—and suddenly, the dollar, without resistance, rose from 79 to 83.1 rubles in a day. By the end of the week, it will reach 84.5 rubles, the euro 93 rubles, and the yuan 11.5 rubles.» What was warned about in May is no longer just a forecast but a reality. The overvalued ruble is now shedding its «mask of stability.» According to Mokrov, the national currency is no longer a tool of trust but merely a reflection of the deficit.
