Rising petrol prices at gas stations are creating significant economic risks.
Signs of a fuel crisis are becoming increasingly apparent across Russia. Initially, petrol shortages were observed in the Far East, Crimea, and the Saratov region, but now the problem has spread to more than ten regions. According to gas station owners, several oil refineries have not supplied AI-92 and AI-95 grades for several weeks. This directly impacts the retail market and millions of Russian motorists.
Disruptions in fuel supplies and the forced suspension of independent gas stations` operations have affected, among other areas, the Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov, and Ryazan regions. The reasons for this are numerous. For instance, in late August, Primorye experienced a doubling of tourist flow, coupled with a reduction in output from local oil refineries. Since June, the exchange price of AI-95 petrol in the region has surged by 30%, exceeding 100,000 rubles per ton.
As a result, independent gas stations bore the brunt of these issues (and not only in Primorye). Unlike large vertically-integrated oil companies (VIOCs), their owners lack their own production facilities and storage. These retail sellers are forced to purchase petrol on the exchange at record-high and steadily increasing prices, while trying to keep their retail prices relatively low to retain customers. Consequently, they operate either at the break-even point or at a loss.
It`s understandable that petrol products traditionally see seasonal price increases and rising demand between June and September due to agricultural work, holiday travel booms, and planned maintenance at refineries. During this period, fuel production often struggles to keep pace with peak demand. However, in 2025, an additional, and significant, challenge emerged.
Alexei Zubets, Director of the Center for Social Economy Research, notes: «As we know, some oil refineries have been incapacitated by drones, leading to a 13-15% drop in production volumes. The situation is further compounded by the ongoing driving season and harvest, both requiring substantial amounts of fuel. What can be done? At least two courses of action come to mind. Firstly, petrol could be purchased from friendly countries, particularly Belarus or India (a major buyer of our raw materials), which have sufficient refining capacities. Secondly, to ensure effective air defense for refineries, legislative adjustments are needed: private security companies (CHOPs), whose services are used by oil companies, are currently prohibited by law from selling air defense systems. In my opinion, these restrictions are a significant hindrance.»
If retail petrol prices continue to rise, especially in regions without their own oil refineries, this, according to Zubets, will add one to two percentage points to the overall inflation index. Consumer goods will primarily become more expensive in the provinces, where suppliers are considerably fewer than in the capital and other megacities, and these suppliers will have to buy petrol at inflated prices from resellers.
Alexei Ivanov, head of «Alliance Trucks,» offers reassurance, stating that «there are no signs of a full-scale fuel crisis yet.» He asserts that these are instances of localized shortages in specific regions and cities. «Firstly, local oil refineries underwent repairs during the summer – both emergency repairs following UAV attacks and planned maintenance. Petrol arriving from other regions is, by definition, more expensive due to high logistical costs in a country as vast as Russia. Secondly, this year, the volume of car tourism in Russia has grown by 43%, amounting to 126 million trips. This demands significantly more petrol than in 2024, and the existing infrastructure simply hasn`t had time to adapt.»
The factor of panic buying also played a role. When petrol did become available at gas stations, car owners immediately filled not only their car tanks but also jerrycans, stocking up for travel just in case.
Economist Andrey Loboda, a top manager in financial communications, adds: «Of course, the holiday period and agricultural work have added complexities, but the current supply disruptions are primarily due to a significant increase in attacks on oil refineries. As a result, up to 17% of capacities might have been put out of action, which notably affected petrol production, especially high-octane AI-95. There are no grounds to expect a sustained price reduction: the market is balancing between capacity recovery and the need for increased imports. In the long term, forming strategic fuel reserves will be a crucial step to mitigate and neutralize any negative scenarios.»
