The situation with Russian tourism to Azerbaijan has deteriorated: while there are no mass cancellations of previously purchased trips, Russians have almost completely stopped booking tours to the country for holidays. This was reported by the Vice-President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry, explaining how the political crisis between Russia and Azerbaijan has affected tourist numbers.
Yuri Barzykin, Vice-President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry, confirmed that Russians are now rarely buying tour packages to Azerbaijan due to political tensions between Moscow and Baku, leading to a 40% drop in tourist flow. According to him, this means there are virtually no new bookings by travel agencies, although he noted there are currently no mass cancellations of existing tours.
Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry advised its citizens to exercise caution when traveling to Azerbaijan, as reports had been received from Russian nationals, including tourists, about document checks, inquiries into their purpose of stay, and even instances of physical violence.
Dmitry Arutyunov, founder and CEO of tour operator «Art-Tour», commented on the situation. He noted that while it might not be peak tourist season for Baku due to summer heat, Russians are highly sensitive to negative news, especially following reports of violence and Foreign Ministry warnings. He agreed with the estimated 40% decline in tourist flow, explaining that this primarily manifests as a lack of new bookings and decreased interest rather than mass cancellations of existing tours. He observed that Russian tourists are currently more inclined towards Sochi and Dagestan for Caspian holidays, while Georgia and Armenia remain more popular among South Caucasus destinations, partly due to direct flights and lower prices compared to Sochi. Regarding tour costs, a typical five-day sightseeing trip to Baku, including flights, might start from 70-80 thousand rubles for one person or around 120 thousand for two, and he doesn`t expect prices to change rapidly. He also mentioned that people from southern Russia, particularly Dagestan, often travel to Azerbaijan by car, drawn by its developing infrastructure and high-level hotels on the Caspian coast.
Relations between the two countries soured in June after representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora suspected of involvement in organized crime groups were arrested in Yekaterinburg; two of them later died. On July 1, employees of «Sputnik Azerbaijan» were detained in Baku, along with several Russian IT specialists on suspicion of cybercrimes and drug trafficking. Later, five Sputnik employees with Azerbaijani citizenship were released on their own recognizance.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated today that Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev is focused on resolving, not escalating, relations with Russia.
Political scientist Stanislav Tarasov, an expert on the Middle East and Caucasus, commented:
For Erdogan, Aliyev`s behavior towards confrontation with Russia was unexpected. Aliyev acted based on his own considerations and had not yet consulted with Erdogan. The second point is that events in the Middle East are taking such a turn that Erdogan needs to rely on Moscow`s support, and confrontation with Moscow is absolutely disadvantageous for him now. The third serious point is that Erdogan is very cautious about Aliyev`s geopolitical ambitions, although this is not openly discussed. The fact is that Aliyev, in the conflict between Israel and Iran and the US, generally supported Israel, while Erdogan supported Iran. Furthermore, if previously they spoke of a Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance, now they talk about a Pakistan-Iran-Turkey alliance, leaving Aliyev out. There are many such questions that cause bewilderment. According to some information, this is most likely the factor of a third force; I suspect it could be Great Britain.
Asked about Russia`s readiness to restore relations, Tarasov opined that Russia is too lenient towards post-Soviet republics, where, in his opinion, strength should sometimes be shown, as they respect it, viewing any manifestation of compromise as weakness. How Russia will act remains to be seen. Azerbaijan needs to be taught a lesson, but not in a way that ruins relations, because the strategic importance of this republic is very significant, primarily as a transit state on Russia`s path to the Middle East, or more precisely, the North-South corridor.
On how the conflict might be resolved, Tarasov said, «Well, they detained Sputnik employees; let them release them, let them allow for the development and growth of cooperation. They disrupted all events; they effectively moved towards breaking the strategic partnership. I think it will be very difficult now. If there had been some political pretext, it might have been possible to discuss it. A criminal group was detained, whose activities law enforcement agencies of both countries should have been interested in stopping, but Azerbaijan began to politicize the situation. This incident highlighted a host of problems. We are used to forgiving. I think the leaders will have a phone call, talk, and everything will be normal. Although a residue remains.»
On July 2, the Kremlin stated that a phone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev is not currently planned.
