SPIEF 2025 concluded, bringing not only optimistic pronouncements but also underlying concern for Russia`s economic future. Key figures within the economic leadership were candid about reaching a turning point.
Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov stated that «business senses we are potentially on the brink of transitioning into recession.» Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina acknowledged that «resources are truly exhausted.» Finance Minister Anton Siluanov remarked, somewhat wryly, «There are no reserves now. We spend every last kopeck.» The prevailing sentiment from the high-level speeches was a diminished confidence in the current economic model and a clear call for new strategies and solutions.
The Model: An Old Ship in New Waters
At the forum, it became clear that authorities are no longer debating *whether* to change the economic model, but *which* one to adopt and how to implement the transition without `sinking the ship` of the domestic economy.
Leaders of the economic bloc held differing views. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov advocates stability: «We live in such a complex world, Russia is growing by over 4 percent, we are surrounded by sanctions, and you talk about changing the model. We must bet on technological sovereignty, the model works.» But this «it works» is increasingly voiced with skepticism, as just a year ago the minister confidently promised a budget surplus, and today is forced to admit: «There are no reserves now. We spend every last kopeck.»
His cabinet colleague Maxim Reshetnikov sounded far less optimistic. His speeches carried alarming undertones: the economy is on the verge of recession, business perceives deceleration, and resources for a new breakthrough are nearly depleted. «Business senses we are potentially on the brink of transitioning into recession,» the minister conceded. He proposed not a revolution but a «successive» transition: not breaking everything down, but attempting to restart the economic engine without a complete overhaul.
The clearest formulation came from Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina: «Many of these resources are truly exhausted, we need to think about some new growth model.» Her vocabulary increasingly featured words like «limits,» «drivers are exhausted,» and «structural constraints.» The key rate—a headache, it seems, for all forum participants—according to her, should gradually decrease, but without fanaticism: inflation, despite all efforts, remains quite high.
In short, the contours of the future model are still vague. The period of 2022–2023 created an illusion of stability: GDP growth over 4%, low unemployment, a strong foreign trade balance. But in 2025, growth slowed to 1.4% according to recent data, industrial production stagnated, and budget revenues are melting faster than expected. Discussions in the SPIEF corridors increasingly revolved not around new projects, but around the shortage of various resources: labor on the market, production capacity, money in the National Welfare Fund…
The main impression from the Forum is that the economic model has exhausted itself, and this is publicly acknowledged by financial authorities, but at the same time, they do not know (or at least do not say aloud) what the new model should be.
Inflation and the Key Rate: Points of Common Concern
If in previous years the discussion of the key rate and inflation at SPIEF resembled a study seminar—with polite disagreements and vague formulations—this time it was a full-fledged drama unfolding the economic turning point. Growth is slowing, inflation persists. The rate remains high. The debate is increasingly tense.
At the plenary session, Vladimir Putin reported that inflation stood at 9.5% as of June 16. For the president, this is better than forecast. For the audience, it`s an alarming signal. Because simultaneous economic slowdown and persistent inflation are not just statistics; they are a warning signal turning into an alarm bell. Stagflation is at the doorstep!
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak called for not «cooling» the economy with a high rate, but, on the contrary, «heating it up.» This proposal sounded almost provocative against the background of the Central Bank`s fundamentally strict stance, which abandoned softness long ago and, it seems, for good. Central Bank representative Andrey Gangan responded bluntly: «A rapid rate cut will lead not to GDP growth, but to accelerated inflation.» A simple thesis, behind which lies a strategic line of defense.
Maxim Reshetnikov tried to play on nuances. He did not demand an urgent reduction of the key rate, but asked for flexibility. «You don`t want us to slide into the Turkish scenario, do you?» he threw a stone towards the Central Bank, implying the catastrophe of rampant inflation in Turkey caused by populist abandonment of strict monetary policy. But keeping the rate at a level that stifles growth is also not a solution.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov unexpectedly became almost the main optimist at the forum, suggesting remembering faith. «The main thing is faith in lowering inflation. If you believe in four percent—it will definitely come true,» he stated. The remark sounded warm, but, judging by the audience`s reaction, unconvincing. Prices on the shelves are more persuasive than any incantations.
Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina this time departed from dry officialdom. After the discussion reached a deadlock, she suggested «talking about music instead of the rate,» comparing the current situation to Beethoven`s Ninth Symphony. «A complex composition, you don`t guess the melody right away,» she explained.
In sideline discussions, representatives of major financial structures, including bankers and macroeconomists, unanimously admitted: inflation has «settled in.» Influencing it with classical means is increasingly difficult, especially in conditions of disrupted supply chains, limited imports, and permanent geopolitical turbulence. One participant—an economist from a state bank—described the situation this way: «We are driving the rate on asphalt, but the wheels are spinning in gravel.»
The main question remains open: what to do with this «gravel»? Some suggest waiting and hoping that the rate will start to decrease by autumn, while others are sure that without structural changes in the economy, monetary policy will become simply a helpless tool.
This year, the discussion of the rate became not a technocratic exercise, but an expression of general anxiety. Lowering it is dangerous, maintaining it is painful. But the most frightening thing is that there is not even a single understanding of where the current course is leading.
The Labor Market: A Hole Where Growth Drains Away
If previously the problem of staff shortages was carefully avoided, at SPIEF 2025 it occupied almost a central position on the agenda. No other economic parameter sounded as frequently and alarmingly as the shortage of personnel—and not just workers, but those capable of performing complex, high-productivity work. The deficit in the labor market in 2025 is a diagnosis.
«Russia must transition to an economy of high wages based not on a shortage of personnel, but on increasing the quality and productivity of labor,» Vladimir Putin stated at the plenary session. A formula that hints at both a strategic task and a current pain point.
Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov clarified: by 2030, 2.4 million specialists will be needed, predominantly in blue-collar professions. RSPP President Alexander Shokhin named a different figure—11 million vacancies by 2029. The figures differ, but both speak of the same thing: the staffing gap is huge, and so far there is no clear way to fill it.
In sideline discussions, business representatives—from large enterprises to small manufacturing owners—repeated the same thing: «Terrible staff hunger.» All layers are involved in the discussion: schoolchildren—the future reserve, pensioners—often forced labor, migrants—a tool for emergency gap-filling. But even this is no longer working as before. One forum participant cited a recent case: «We brought Vietnamese workers to Sakhalin—they failed the Russian language exam, now we`re taking them back at our own expense. And a bricklayer already costs 300,000 [rubles].» Wage growth, getting out of control, is becoming a new economic trap.
A Central Bank representative reminded that the cost of labor is one of the key inflationary factors. And as long as wages grow faster than labor productivity, the situation will only worsen.
The increase in the minimum wage to 27,000 rubles by 2026, reported by Kotyakov, will support 4.6 million people. But in the same corridors, it was said: the indexation of the minimum wage is not so much about increasing fairness as it is about putting additional pressure on business, especially in poorer regions.
Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova reminded that up to 70% of vacancies in the coming years will require secondary vocational education. But it is precisely this level that has proven most vulnerable today. «Regional vocational education systems work not on demand, but on habit,» it was said at the sessions.
A new labor cycle has already begun, believes Elena Shmeleva, head of an educational platform: «This is a long, 20–30-year cycle—technological, geopolitical. And we are only at the beginning, still at the level of schoolchildren.» Meanwhile, at the economic level—deficit and overheating.
The Ruble Exchange Rate: Between `Real` and `Desired`
Another reason for serious debate is the exchange rate. «We are at the peak of economic uncertainty,» admitted the head of the largest state bank, German Gref. He directly named the level he considers adequate: «The equilibrium ruble rate is currently 100 rubles per dollar. The current rate of 78–79 is too strong. This is a blow to exporters and primarily to the budget.»
«A strengthening ruble is harmful to the economy,» echoed Andrey Kostin, head of another large state bank. According to him, «it is necessary to steer towards a rate of `90 plus` rubles per dollar, otherwise systemic problems with exports and growth will begin.»
First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov did not shy away from sharp corners: «The optimal dollar rate for Russian exporters and importers is about 100 rubles.» According to him, a strong ruble reduces the profitability of industry. This idea was supported by RSPP head Alexander Shokhin: «Business relies on a rate in the range of 90–100 rubles per dollar as predictable and acceptable for planning and operations.»
But the Central Bank traditionally maintains its line. «The equilibrium ruble rate is the result of the balance of supply and demand. What we see now is precisely that. Even if it doesn`t coincide with expert opinions,» stated Andrey Gangan, Director of the Central Bank`s Monetary Policy Department.
The problem is not only in the numbers but also in expectations. Citizens need a strong ruble—it makes life noticeably cheaper. Exporters require a weak one—otherwise they lose revenue and markets. The budget needs a rate that fills the treasury. «With the current rate, it`s difficult to plan. And with a fluctuating one, it`s simply impossible,» admitted one forum participant in the corridors.
In this triangle—population, business, and the state—the balance of the rate has become almost a philosophical concept. The ruble rate turned out to be more than just a number—it is a mirror of a system that has fewer and fewer levers and more and more obligations.
Oil and Geopolitics: No Time for Illusions
At SPIEF 2025, oil was discussed not in the usual terms of revenue growth, but in terms of survival and vulnerability. Geopolitics is like a dull background: audible, but difficult to distinguish until it starts acting. It hasn`t started yet. But «certain risks exist,» admitted Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Logistics work, supplies are going, but the market is tense. And it reacts to the slightest signals.
President Vladimir Putin tried to reassure: «The rise in oil prices is insignificant. There is no panic. The situation does not require an operational reaction from OPEC+.» Finance Minister Anton Siluanov added pragmatic notes: «Of course, the oil price will give us optimal oil and gas revenues. But we build policy independently of this. Excess revenues will go to the National Welfare Fund—and thank God.»
Nevertheless, in the corridors, conversations were not about how to divide excess profits, but about how to preserve the base. «Energy is the foundation of our entire economy,» Novak reminded. But it is also under attack: logistics are becoming more complex, costs are higher, finding new markets is difficult. «Arab countries are already moving away from dependence on single products. It`s time for us too,» he concluded. His speech was more of a call than an analysis.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais assured that his organization would exclude political factors from market analysis. But in reality, they are already built into the price per barrel. And, as one economist in the hall noted, «this is no longer just oil—it`s a compress of the market, geopolitics, and the nervous system.» It seems oil this year is not an anchor, but a «swing» for the entire economic structure.
Diagnosis: Bidding Farewell to Illusions
The main outcome of the forum is the loss of ritual optimism. This year, almost no one was throwing caps in the air or shouting hurray. «We are at the peak of economic uncertainty,» admitted one of the country`s largest financiers. Putin spoke of the unacceptability of stagnation. Reshetnikov—about the brink of recession. Nabiullina—about exhausted resources. Gref—about the problem of non-payments… Even those who for years claimed that everything was «fine» with our economy are now cautious in their assessments and forecasts.
SPIEF 2025 became a turning point: if previously they discussed how to move forward, now they are discussing where to go. There is no answer yet. But for the first time in a long time, an important question was raised: isn`t the usual path leading to a dead end?
