Russia’s Labor Market in Crisis: A Deepening Worker Shortage

Anton Kotyakov, Minister of Labor and Social Protection, has highlighted a growing personnel deficit: by 2030, the Russian economy will need at least 2.4 million additional workers, with the total number of individuals required to be engaged in labor activities reaching 10.9 million. There`s a particularly acute shortage of skilled manual workers: the number of vacancies per available worker has increased by 2.5 times. This isn`t just statistics; it`s an alarm bell indicating the country is entering a period of profound labor market transformation. Moreover, experts warn that this labor gap is unlikely to be filled solely by migrants and working pensioners.

Photo: Komsomolskaya Pravda/Global Look Press

While the government focuses on accelerating economic growth, a significant personnel gap is widening in the labor market; there`s simply no one available to boost GDP growth rates. Millions of vacancies exist, yet fewer and fewer people are willing to fill them. The Ministry of Labor is raising the alarm: according to the most conservative forecasts, Russia will lack 2.4 million workers by 2030. Some estimates suggest the deficit could be even larger, reaching 3.1 million. This shortfall is comparable to the entire populations of Kazan and Novosibirsk simultaneously exiting the labor market.

In assessing the scale of this deficit, Minister Kotyakov refers to a large-scale survey of 260,000 employers, indicating that the warning comes from within the system itself. The main issue isn`t just a general lack of workers, but specifically a shortage of those willing and skilled in manual labor. This is particularly evident in construction, where, according to Andrey Glushkin, managing partner at Main Division, «the implementation of major infrastructure and social projects hinges on those who are simply not entering the market today.» Young people are increasingly opting for office jobs, even as unfinished schools, interchanges, and hospitals remain outside their windows. Blue-collar professions are losing prestige, and despite demand for them growing exponentially, no one is rushing to fill these vacant positions.

Meanwhile, the number of vacancies for manual professions continues to rise. In some regions, there are up to three open positions for every available worker, especially in areas with significant manufacturing or construction activity. This is evolving into a structural problem with a cumulative impact.

Proposed solutions echo those from the 1990s: migrants, working pensioners, and «internal reserves.» However, these approaches are not straightforward. Glushkin notes that «increasing employment among pensioners is a debatable step, especially in sectors with high physical demands.» Migrants offer a temporary measure and can indeed alleviate the situation, particularly in the mass labor segment, but this relief can be followed by social strain. Competition for housing, jobs, and healthcare typically remains outside optimistic forecasts.

Valery Tumin, a member of the expert council for digital economy development under the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, attributes the personnel deficit to a shrinking working-age population, an aging demographic, and declining birth rates. What was once termed a «demographic pit» in the 2000s has now become a precipice, revealing a severe lack of skilled labor in industry, agriculture, transport, and high-tech sectors. The issue extends beyond those who have left the country to also include the remaining workforce.

If the market is a system of signals, then the personnel deficit is no longer just a signal, but a siren. Systemic measures, which are currently lacking, must begin with a re-evaluation of education. Experts believe that without a direct link between colleges and employers, valuable labor will continue to be lost; a chasm will persist between academic qualifications and real-world employment. «Vocational guidance, internships, and targeted training based on actual business needs are not just buzzwords but vital necessities,» insists Glushkin.

However, even these are just the initial steps. To encourage young people to pursue construction rather than waiting for marketing vacancies, it`s crucial not only to explain but also to demonstrate the benefits: salary, working conditions, and career prospects. Labor must be associated with increasing prosperity, not merely survival. For now, both construction and industry largely operate in a `patching holes` mode: project by project, shift by shift, lacking a long-term strategy.