Experts Predict a Significant Rise in Oncology Mortality Worldwide
A forecast published in the esteemed medical journal Lancet indicates that global cancer mortality is expected to surge by nearly 75% by 2050 compared to 2023 levels. Scientists attribute this primary trend to the overall aging of the world`s population. Russian experts concur, pointing out that advancements in other medical fields mean more people are living longer, thus increasing their likelihood of developing cancer. Nevertheless, they also underscore the significant impact of other contributing factors, including smoking, obesity, and environmental degradation.
An international team of experts utilized the Global Burden of Disease project`s database to assess future scenarios for cancer mortality worldwide. Cancer remains the second leading cause of death globally, surpassed only by cardiovascular diseases.
Researchers determined that in 2023, there were at least 18.5 million new cancer diagnoses and 10.4 million cancer-related deaths globally, marking a 74% increase since 1990. To project future trends, a specialized statistical model was developed. This model factored in anticipated changes in key risk factors (such as projected smoking prevalence over the next 25 years) and countries` overall socioeconomic development, which directly impacts healthcare quality.
According to the scientists` projections, by 2050, the number of new cancer cases is expected to reach approximately 30.5 million annually, a 61% increase. Furthermore, the number of deaths is projected to rise even more dramatically, by 75%, to about 18.6 million per year.
This escalating trend will be particularly pronounced in low- and middle-income countries, where mortality could nearly double, reaching a 91% increase. More affluent nations are expected to see a less substantial rise, around 43%.
Nevertheless, researchers point out that the global individual risk of dying from cancer by 2050 is not expected to change significantly and might even slightly decrease. Therefore, the overall rise in cancer deaths is primarily driven by demographic shifts: the proportion of the elderly population worldwide will be considerably larger by 2050.
Ruslan Basanov, an oncologist at Academician Roitberg`s clinic, confirms that the global aging population indeed contributes to increased cancer mortality, as mutations accumulate in cells with age, raising the likelihood of developing oncological diseases. Polina Shilo, Executive Director of the Higher School of Oncology, highlights an interesting paradox: high cancer mortality is likely to be observed in countries with high educational levels and accessible medical care. This is because, under such conditions, more people live long enough to reach ages where cancer becomes more prevalent.
Experts, however, emphasize that population aging is only one of the contributing factors.
Polina Shilo notes that obesity is a significant risk factor for cancer development in young individuals. Ruslan Basanov adds that tobacco and alcohol consumption, along with environmental pollution, also play substantial roles: for instance, lung cancer is more prevalent in regions with high smoking rates and poor air quality. Stomach and intestinal cancers are often linked to diets low in fiber but high in fats and processed meats. The incidence of breast and cervical cancers continues to rise due to insufficient screening programs and incomplete vaccination against the human papillomavirus.
In Russia, according to the Ministry of Health, the number of newly diagnosed malignant neoplasms increased from 674,000 in 2023 to 698,000 in 2024. The highest numbers of new cancer cases in 2024 were recorded in Moscow (60,338), Saint Petersburg (29,865), and the Moscow region (32,953).
