IKI RAS: Solar Conditions Not Conducive to End of Magnetic Storm
Solar Flares. Archive photo.
Experts from the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Space Research Institute (IKI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences have warned that conditions on the Sun and in near-Earth space are not favorable for an imminent end to the current magnetic storm, despite a small chance of it weakening from `red` to `yellow` level.
The geomagnetic storm, which began on Tuesday morning, has now been ongoing for nearly 30 hours.
«The forecast for the next 24 hours remains unfavorable. Despite the possibility of the storm decreasing to a `yellow` level in the coming hours, the situation both on the Sun and in near-Earth space does not contribute to normalization. Moreover, the daily forecast, for the first time in many days, includes more than a 50% probability of X-class solar flares, the highest category,» stated the laboratory in its Telegram channel.
It was noted that over the past day, the parameters of the interplanetary medium largely deteriorated. The speed of the solar wind near Earth increased from approximately 400 to about 700 kilometers per second, and the plasma temperature rose from 100,000 to 300,000 degrees Celsius. The interplanetary magnetic field strength remains at a moderate level, with its peaks on Tuesday coinciding with the peaks of magnetic field oscillations.
Scientists added that currently, the field strength has decreased by 40-60%, which keeps the storm at a moderate G1-G2 level.
The laboratory also specified that on Tuesday evening, relatively short-lived but more intense polar aurora expansions were observed compared to the previous day. A significant number of observations were reported from the Moscow region, where the aurora was barely visible to the naked eye but reliably recorded by phones and cameras. Again, numerous reports came from the northeastern regions of the country.
