After a sudden drop, should we expect egg prices to rise again in autumn?
Over the past 18 months, ordinary chicken eggs became a symbol of rising inflation, with prices soaring abnormally high. This even required intervention at the presidential level. Prices recently dropped significantly this year, particularly in June. However, this relief may be short-lived. The Minister of Agriculture is already warning of a potential new price increase. Current purchase prices don`t cover basic costs due to producers dumping excess stock resulting from overproduction to avoid losses.
Experts caution that cheap eggs are a temporary situation. By autumn, prices could surge again, driven by trade markups, rising feed costs, and unprofitable production.
Since the beginning of 2025, chicken egg prices in Russia have fallen by over 20%, with some categories dropping by nearly half. According to market data, a dozen C3 eggs fell by 50% since January, C2 by 26.7%, and even the more common C1 category dropped by almost 15%. This isn`t an inflationary miracle or unexpected generosity from producers and retailers, but a market reaction to a simple economic reality: there are too many eggs.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the wholesale price for a dozen eggs dropped to 63.9 rubles in May, a 25% decrease from January. Producers are raising concerns, stating that these prices don`t even cover feed and electricity costs, let alone poultry farm maintenance and salaries.
«Currently, egg production profitability is nearing zero, and sometimes even goes negative,» says Dmitry Leonov, deputy chairman of a food industry union. «Egg prices fell in spring because retailers signed long-term contracts at reduced prices. Now, producers are forced into aggressive dumping to sell off surpluses.»
This is confirmed by Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut: «Current purchase prices do not cover production costs. If the situation doesn`t change, an unavoidable correction will occur in the autumn.»
In early July, the cost of a dozen eggs began to rise again, by an average of 3.2% compared to June. While the growth is modest so far, the trend is concerning. According to an economics expert, several factors will start pushing prices up closer to autumn. Firstly, compound feed has become more expensive, rising by 5.2% since the beginning of the year, a significant expense for poultry farmers. Secondly, high retail markups, up to 20%, prevent prices from stabilizing.
«Every kopeck increase in compound feed costs automatically reflects on egg prices. And not just eggs – all poultry products, from meat to bone meal, become more expensive. This even affects the price of pork and beef, as bone meal is used as a feed additive for young animals,» the expert highlights.
Furthermore, during the autumn, egg production typically decreases due to shorter daylight hours and temperature changes. This also impacts prices, not in favor of the consumer.
Compared to last year, when bird flu outbreaks affected poultry numbers, the situation in 2025 appears favorable. The laying hen population has increased significantly over two years, and there are no widespread epidemics. However, there`s a downside to this: more hens mean more eggs, leading to more sales challenges.
Interestingly, while prices are falling in Russia, the global situation is the opposite: in the USA, the cost of a dozen eggs has risen dramatically over recent years. The reasons are the same – feed, fuel, labor. But unlike the Russian market, the Western market simply passed the costs onto the consumer.
However, Russian consumers recall with concern when egg prices jumped significantly in late 2023. Will this happen again? Experts tend towards a moderate forecast: yes, prices will rise, but without the previous sharp increase.
«A slight increase is already being observed. By September-October, a dozen eggs will likely return to the 90-110 ruble range. This will depend on the feed harvest and the overall inflation level,» believes an economics professor.
According to experts, there is no real threat of a sharp jump – production is stable, logistics are established, and stocks are significant. However, don`t expect very low prices anytime soon either.
Now, during the summer, is the best time to take advantage of the situation. Egg prices are currently lower, and the seasonal harvest of vegetables partially compensates for potential increases in other items. However, it`s important to understand: cheap eggs are temporary, like a holiday. By September, prices could «hatch» with new numbers. And if eggs were «reasonably priced» in June, they could well become «golden» again in the autumn.
