Moscow is experiencing a series of unusual weather events: tropical summer downpours, cold snaps in May, snow in April, and an exceptionally warm winter. These phenomena point to global climate changes, which are felt more acutely in Russia than almost anywhere else. This article explores the potential economic and societal impacts, and how scientists are preparing for these climate transformations.
Moscow`s Shifting Climate: Becoming More Southern
Flooded city streets turned into `car cemeteries` and news outlets filled with reports of destructive lightning strikes – the weather in Central Russia has once again sparked discussions about climate change. According to scientists, the key to understanding many of these anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere lies in the Arctic, where surface temperature increases are more than three times higher than global average changes.
The issue is that warming in the North leads to a variety of — and often unpleasant — phenomena in regions further south. The evidence is right outside, says Vladimir Semenov, Director of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
«Even 25-30 years ago, climate physicists understood that global warming in the Arctic would lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle — heatwaves would be followed by torrential rains. Summer weather in Moscow would gradually begin to resemble that in Voronezh, then Rostov-on-Don, where heavy rains follow prolonged heat. Meanwhile, calm, prolonged rains will become less frequent, though the average amount of precipitation might remain the same,» explains the scientist.
More Than Just Human Influence
Sometimes, warming in the North can trigger entirely unexpected events in other parts of the country. In his work, Semenov demonstrated that, for example, atmospheric heating in the Barents Sea during winter can lead to the formation of a stable anticyclone — and thus severe frosts — in Central Russia and the Urals.
The Arctic itself, according to climate models, could become seasonally ice-free within the next two decades. This means that in September — when the ice area is at its annual minimum — there will be no ice even at the North Pole, the scientist indicates. This raises numerous questions for fundamental science and opens up significant economic prospects in shipping and mineral extraction.
However, neither the nature of such rapid changes in the Arctic nor the physical mechanisms at play are fully understood. For instance, scientists need to determine to what extent warming is influenced by anthropogenic factors versus natural climate fluctuations. According to Semenov, it`s quite possible that the consequences of human activity have coincided with a positive phase of these fluctuations. In such a scenario, it`s unclear what would happen if the `pendulum` swings in the other direction, or when this might occur.
«One of the most important questions is the predictability of climate changes in the Arctic,» says Semenov. «Will we be able to forecast them with reasonable accuracy over a scale of ten, twenty, or fifty years?»
The Collaboration for Prediction
To address these gaps, Russian scientists have teamed up with colleagues from China. In July, the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) awarded a mega-grant for the study of `extreme weather and climate phenomena, and associated consequences and risks under rapid climate change in the Arctic.`
The team will be led by Professor Lin Wang from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Although only 44, he already heads the Monsoon Systems Research Center in China. Semenov explains that he is not a `scientific retiree` looking for a quiet haven to end his career, but an active, promising researcher at the peak of his scientific form.
«Professor Lin Wang is truly a unique specialist in climate diagnostics. He, like no other, knows how to untangle complex webs of interconnections. His work on extreme heatwaves is particularly impressive — he can precisely determine the conditions under which they arise and how they relate to processes in the North Atlantic or other regions,» says the director of the Russian Institute of Atmospheric Physics. «I personally met the professor at a conference in Tomsk, where he gave a lecture. I was especially impressed by how Wang uses modern diagnostic methods. For example, he showed how in certain cases, heatwaves in Northern Eurasia can be predicted ten to fourteen days in advance. It was a truly profound, high-quality analysis.»
Semenov notes that Russian scientists from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics once helped their Beijing colleagues with methodologies and scientific equipment when they were researching the smog problem over the Chinese capital. In a sense, they are now `returning the favor.`
On the Russian side, leading specialists from various institutes — physicists, oceanographers, and mathematicians — will participate in the research. The project is set to run until 2029, with annual funding of 50 million rubles.
Is Warming Beneficial or Detrimental?
The range of tasks is quite broad. Researchers aim to learn how to predict climate anomalies in both the Arctic and temperate latitudes. They seek to understand how warming in the region affects greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, and conversely, how anthropogenic and natural emissions of these gases accelerate temperature increases.
The tools are also diverse. Monitoring the situation in the Arctic is planned using specialized drones. Russian scientists also hope that Chinese supercomputers will be utilized for numerical modeling and climate forecasting, as the process requires significant computational power.
The ultimate goal of this and other projects studying the North is to learn how to adapt to any climate transformations, whatever they may be, explains Semenov.
«If we understand what will happen, qualitatively and scientifically assess potential changes, and prepare for them in a timely manner, then, of course, we will minimize risks and be able to derive more benefits. If we let things take their course, then, of course, we will face more troubles than advantages. That is, if we are ready and adapt, climate change is beneficial for us; if not, then the opposite is true,» he reasons.
On a Decadal Scale
Regardless, the average person is unlikely to feel abrupt climate changes, says Marina Makarova, chief specialist at the Hydrometcenter. Commenting on the heavy rains in Central Russia, she notes that such weather is not uncommon for mid-summer.
«This doesn`t happen every year, but there`s nothing exceptional about it either. In 2020, remember, three months in a row — May, June, and July — were abnormally rainy. However, far-reaching conclusions about climate change cannot be drawn based on a couple of seasons. Yes, climatologists talk about shifts in the hydrological cycle, but these processes are only visible over decades,» explains Makarova.
According to her, weather has always been, is, and will be changeable. The main thing is to know how to behave when the elements rage, rather than panicking over every downpour.
