Makarov recalled the «predictable past», Peskov mentioned unfulfilled expectations, while business focused on rates, personnel, and institutions.
Despite the traditional St. Petersburg rain, the mood in the hall remained unaffected, as the moderator noted. During the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), a business breakfast session took place.
The meeting`s theme was «Rates Against Growth», a title carrying a double meaning, referring to both interest rates and prospects for economic development.
According to a recent survey of Russian businesses, the primary obstacle identified by participants is the Central Bank`s high key interest rate. Inflation, costly credit, and a weak ruble make business planning increasingly unpredictable.
The second major issue after interest rates is the personnel shortage. This affects not only unskilled labor but also engineers, managers, and mid-level specialists, indicating a systemic problem. Adjusting migration policy was discussed as a potential solution, but no concrete proposals were presented.
The term «elephant» was intentionally used, first by Andrey Makarov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes. He referred to the «elephant in the room» – an issue visible to all but often left undiscussed.
According to him, this «elephant» represents the problem of institutions, particularly the judicial protection of property rights and the independence of decisions.
Earlier, he had ironically commented on Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov`s pre-forum statement that Western companies are not planning to return to Russia. «`We`ve even devised rules for their return – but they`re still not coming!` Makarov remarked with a smirk, eliciting both laughter and tension in the audience.
He also reminded the audience that discussions about property rights and Russia`s investment climate have persisted for decades, quoting Vladimir Putin from 2001, who urged protection for bona fide purchasers. «`25 years have passed. Some remained, others left. Yet, we are still discussing the same issues,` Makarov observed.
Slides from the 2019 forum, which saw the launch of national projects, were also referenced. At that time, according to Makarov, growth and personnel issues were also discussed. The difference is that today`s discussions are marked by less optimism.
Budgetary injections cannot be endless, and private business remains unsystematically involved in development. «`The country remains a land of a bright future. Unfortunately, with an unpredictable past,` he concluded.
He added that without robust institutions, without trust in the judiciary, contracts, and property rights, neither interest rates nor national projects can guarantee sustainable growth.
A jest, albeit a bitter one, heard in the hall summarized the sentiment: «One truly hopes to survive until the next breakfast.»
Tag: SPIEF
