The United States aims to make the EU dependent on its own energy resources.
During an energy forum in Italy, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced America`s readiness to fill the void if the European Union abandons Russian energy resources. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promptly assured the US minister that the EU is prepared to swiftly transition from «dirty» Russian hydrocarbons to «clean European energy.» Natalia Milchakova, a lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global, observes that von der Leyen`s statement is likely to raise questions from the US side, given that the United States intends to supply the very same hydrocarbons—oil, LNG, and coal—which von der Leyen describes as «dirty resources.»
Analyzing the interests of both parties, Milchakova recalls a trade deal struck this summer between the US and the EU. Under President Trump`s terms, tariffs on European goods imported into the US would decrease from 30% to 15% if the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of American energy resources by 2028. According to Eurostat, in 2024, the EU imported $375 billion in energy carriers from all suppliers. Of this, $83 billion (22%) came from the US, while Russia accounted for approximately $23 billion (about 6%). With projected annual purchases from the US totaling around $250 billion over the next three years, this would represent nearly two-thirds of the EU`s total energy import volume. Consequently, the United States would become a dominant, almost monopolistic, supplier in the European energy market, far exceeding Gazprom`s maximum 36% share of the EU gas market before 2022.
The benefit for America is clear. Regarding Russia, the analyst believes it would face no difficulty in fully reorienting its hydrocarbon exports to more reliable buyers such as China, India, Turkey, and EAEU countries, thereby abandoning the European market entirely. However, the European Commission President`s current declarations might provoke discontent in countries heavily reliant on Russian pipeline gas and oil, like Hungary and Slovakia. Milchakova also suggests that under certain circumstances, the US might acquire Russian energy infrastructure in Europe to become a supplier of pipeline gas to the EU itself. Such a scenario could potentially lead to a rebalanced set of interests among the US, Russia, and European consumers.
