Humanity has grown accustomed to a steady increase in average life expectancy. Throughout the 20th century, each new generation lived longer than the last, leading to a belief that a lifespan of 100 years would soon become the norm. However, new research challenges these optimistic projections, indicating a sharp slowdown in this trend, which could have significant implications.
Chasing the Record Holder
Jeanne Louise Calment, a resident of Arles in southeastern France, passed away on August 4, 1997. Her life was largely unremarkable, save for its extraordinary length: at the time of her death, she was 122 years, five months, and fourteen days old. This remains the official record, though some suspicions exist regarding the precise accuracy of her age. Nonetheless, her achievement stands as a global benchmark and a symbolic goal for humanity, making the toast «May you live to 120» a popular one at celebrations.
Twentieth-century advancements in science, technology, and healthcare fueled the belief that achieving an average human lifespan exceeding 100 years was a realistic prospect. Several studies further supported this optimistic outlook.
In 2023, American economists David McCarthy and Po-Lin Wang utilized Bayesian statistical methods to analyze over a century`s worth of data from 19 developed nations. Their findings indicated that historical increases in life expectancy were primarily due to reduced mortality rates among younger populations, while the elderly`s lifespans remained relatively consistent. However, for cohorts born after 1910, they observed an extension in the ultimate human lifespan itself.
The researchers concluded that the generations poised to break longevity records are simply too young. The oldest among them have only recently crossed the 110-year mark. Individuals who passed away in recent decades belonged to earlier cohorts that did not fully benefit from the medical and societal advancements that delay mortality.
However, a recent study by an international group of demographers refutes these earlier calculations.
Without Breakthroughs
A comprehensive study, based on data analysis from 23 high-income countries, revealed that for generations born after 1939, the increase in life expectancy will significantly decelerate.
The primary reason for this slowdown is the exhaustion of potential for further reductions in early-age mortality. Over half of the projected deceleration is attributed to the limited scope for improving health outcomes among children under five. Twentieth-century advancements in medicine and hygiene have already revolutionized child mortality rates, reducing them to very low levels. While some future progress is still possible, it will be considerably more challenging and unable to contribute as significantly to overall life expectancy gains as in the past, according to the study`s authors.
Employing six different forecasting methods, scientists determined that the rate of life expectancy growth would slow by 37-52% compared to last century`s figures. This implies that instead of the historical gain of approximately 0.46 years per generation, new cohorts will only add about 0.20-0.29 years. Consequently, none of the generations studied (up to those born in 2000) are highly likely to achieve a life expectancy of 100 years.
The authors believe that even if future medical breakthroughs exceed all current predictions, fundamentally reversing this trend for currently living generations will be extremely difficult.
«The unprecedented increase in life expectancy achieved by humanity in the first half of the 20th century is unlikely to be replicated in the foreseeable future,» states , one of the study`s authors. «Without significant breakthroughs that substantially extend human life, such rapid growth as seen in the early 20th century will not occur, even if adult survival rates were to increase twice as fast as we predict.»
The era of guaranteed and significant increases in life expectancy for each new generation is drawing to a close, a development experts believe will have a substantial impact on society.
«One Thing Is Clear»
While the study primarily focused on developed countries, the slowdown in life expectancy growth is a global phenomenon, according to , a professor and doctor of medical sciences.
«The deceleration is primarily linked to the fact that improvements in mortality rates among children and young adults have either slowed or ceased entirely. In the past, it was precisely the reduction in early-age mortality that served as the main driver of increased life expectancy, but this potential now appears to be exhausted,» Veldanova observes.
Whether significant opportunities for further improvements remain is still unclear. Some experts suggest that additional impetus could come from reducing mid-life mortality and from medical breakthroughs, particularly in combating age-related diseases, Veldanova points out.
«However, judging by current data, even the most progressive measures are unlikely to completely reverse the slowdown trend. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the limit of human life has already been reached,» she concludes, implying that life expectancy is influenced not only by biological limitations but also by socio-economic factors such as inequality, stress, environmental issues, and access to medical technologies. The study`s authors, in turn, emphasize that their work holds importance for both governmental bodies and individuals. Understanding anticipated lifespans influences personal decisions regarding savings, retirement planning, and long-term goals. Many may need to re-evaluate their expectations.
